Peter Lynch or Dart-throwing Monkey?

This exercise demonstrates one difficulty in distinguishing between luck and skill. Participants individually roll dice to simulate the performance of fund managers. Some fund managers have a greater chance of success than others, but the lower performers are more plentiful. The chance element in observed performance makes it challenging to determine a given manager’s type (a genius or a dart-throwing monkey).

Illustrate in a hands-on way the challenge of distinguishing between skill and luck. Encourage greater skepticism when evaluating the basis for performance.